Will Donald Trump burst the Australian housing bubble?
Speculation is rife on everything financial, with Donald Trump at the wheel of the world’s largest economy; the biggest of these questions for the property investor is will Donald Trump burst the Australian housing bubble? Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/is-donald-trump-going-to-burst-australias-housing-bubble-20161111-gsnee0
Will Donald Trump affect Australian property prices?
It was written at the weekend, “given his propensity for lying, exaggerating and generally raving, nobody can know what Donald Trump will actually do as president. He probably doesn’t know himself.” The article does not confess to general raving and exaggerating itself in that there is absolutely no evidence of an Australian housing bubble! Australia is the largest island nation in the world, it includes WA and FNQ, Tasmania, SA and everything between. There is a possibility of a ‘housing bubble’ in our two largest cities, but in many other places, prices are less than what they were 10 years ago. This is in Australia and we can’t talk about an Australian bubble, that’s Donald Trump talk!
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According to the bond market reaction, Trump may burst the Sydney/Melbourne housing bubble by causing interest rates to rise.
The Trump plan, in its essence, is very simple and markets clearly believe it will work. He is planning a major infrastructure investment and, unlike Australia, he won’t let public servants constantly get in the way of the infrastructure momentum. But he will re-fire the American steel furnaces, because he doesn’t plan to use Chinese steel.
Trump also plans to lower the US tax rate and suck the enormous sums that American corporations are holding overseas back into the US. Along the way he will make it harder for Canadian, Mexican and Chinese exporters to tap the US market. He says that will be done via higher tariffs. The world is going to move from an increasingly globalised one to one where nations will look more inwards. But given today’s communication and transport systems there is a limit to this change.
The more common fear is that he could start a trade war with China that would cause a global recession which would obviously affect Australia. That would not be a good way to achieve lower housing prices. Hopefully there is enough sanity left in Congress to prevent such madness and just consider the more benign interest rate story.
The last Reserve Bank board meeting was forecasting another RBA rate cut or two by the middle of next year. Trump’s policies, if implemented, will cause a period of inflation resulting in RBA increases and that could certainly cool down the Australian housing market.
So will Donald Trump burst the Australian housing bubble? The media are always looking for stories which may deliver this result, time will tell but maybe they are on to something here that will see prices stabilise in Melbourne and Sydney.
If you want to know more about possible ‘property bubble bursts” or discuss buying new property investment, contact: info@limepropertysolutions.com.au.
