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property cycle

Buying your first home is not easy, Bernard Salt

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Buying your first home is not easy, Bernard Salt

Buying your first home is not easy, Bernard Salt, some of our younger generations, Gen X and Gen Y, seem to miss the humour of one of our best known demographers, Bernard Salt, who has now written two articles over the last couple of weeks suggesting firstly, that they might like to stop buying expensive avocado lunches and save for a home or even give up their overseas holidays and save instead for a house deposit! Like me, Bernard is a “baby-boomer”, one of the lucky who just drifted through life buying cheap properties and having a ball!

(Please contact us at info@limepropertysolutions.com.au for further information or the chance to discuss this and other issues in the comfort of your own home)

While his recent articles should not be taken too seriously, or rather too literally, I do feel some annoyance at how hard the world is perceived to be to some of the younger generations trying to jump on the first step of the property ladder. It has never been an easy step to take, Buying your first home is not easy, and it can be annoying when we baby-boomers are reminded just how easy it was for us to get started.

Read more Bernard Salt article here: https://goo.gl/wGnqiK

My first home was bought in the UK. I was a 21 year-old teacher and the very small two-bedroom duplex I purchased was around eight times my annual income. I managed the deposit through working for the previous four years, sometimes up to 126 hours per week during all the long university breaks and saving by staying at home. On a couple of occasions, I did take lower paying jobs which offered me free accommodation and free meals in holiday destinations like France and the Channel Islands. While I didn’t save much on these jobs, I at least had the opportunity to explore and enjoy a different culture. Travel expenses were absolutely minimal as I hitch-hiked most of the time.

When I eventually moved in to my first home, I had most of the basics from presents from a large family. I had a bed, lounge suit and necessary kitchen-ware and linen. I made most of the ‘furniture’ from cheap melamine sheets and watched a black and white television gifted to me as most people were switching to colour. I did have an old car that was serviced by me with the help of a friend. I had to take on another evening part-time job to help make ends meet. The only time I could ever afford to eat-out was at family gatherings where usually, my parents were paying. Every couple of weeks, if the budget allowed, we may have had a bottle of wine. Eight years after buying the house, I had my first 10 day trip overseas.

This was a lifestyle very typical to all my friends, it did not seem ‘hard’ and it certainly was not unusual. The older generation thought, quite rightly, that we never had it so good.

In speaking to older Australians, including many European immigrants from the 50’s and 60’s, it seems their life was similar. Many tell stories of building their own first home with the help of friends and sleeping on mats on the floor until they could afford a proper bed.

I’m very glad the world has changed and our standard of living has improved immensely since the 1970’s but I do think Mr Salt, tongue in cheek or not, is putting out a very important message; it is not easy to get on to the property ladder buy it never has been! It does often take some sacrifice in current lifestyle and it does involve living on a tight budget …. and always has!

‘Affordability’ is always an issue after a period of cyclic growth. Buying your first home is not easy and never has been. The same stories emerge after every growth cycle. We had the same discussions in Sydney in 1989 and again in 2003 after the last two major growth cycles. After a few years, income increases, borrowing rates change and things become easier – affordability increases! If we make the necessary sacrifices and budget/lifestyle changes now, then there may be a good chance that advantage can be taken during the next phase of more-affordable housing. It will happen, it always does, just be ready for it and don’t expect to start off with everything that your older neighbours have; it’s taken them all their life to get to where they are!

If you want to know more about this or discuss buying new property investment, a great way to ‘save’ towards your own first home, contact: info@limepropertysolutions.com.au.

Forecasts for Housing Price growth

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Forecasts for Housing Price growth
We seem to be by bombarded by various forecasts for Housing price growth, or maybe I should say, in some cases, housing crashes or bubbles bursting.
If you are feeling in a particularly negative mood, or perhaps you are a first home buyer waiting for the market to crash in order that you can buy, then its best to try and get a hold of the many international companies, looking at the Australian housing market from the outside, to find the doom and gloom price crash scenarios. Just last week, Deloitte Access, (not for the first time) tipped property to be the ‘worst investment’ over the next few years; I’m sure they’d love to get it right just once!
If you are interested in hearing a more positive forecast for real estate prices, you can usually depend on the Real Estate Industry itself, particularly some of the better known, (not necessarily more accurate!) organisations like Domain or Hotspotting “ guru” Terry Ryder, who infamously wrote that there was ‘no mining boom’ a few years ago and high prices, high rents and growth would continue in some of our mining boom towns!
(Please contact us at info@limepropertysolutions.com.au for further information or the chance to discuss this and other issues in the comfort of your own home)
Probably, by far, the most dependable forecasts we have are those done by BIS Shrapnel on behalf of QBE, the most recent being the Australian Housing Outlook Report 2016-2019. This report is published in October each year and the latest has just recently been released.
While the press report on this release loves the opportunity to use phrases and words like “The Boom is over” and “Prices Plummet”, the experienced property investor will find absolutely nothing out of the ordinary or unexpected in the report. In summary, Sydney has hit the top of its growth cycle and we may see a small correction in the price of units and an even smaller correction, if at all, in house prices; exactly what happened after the 1988 and the 1993 Sydney ‘booms’ but maybe not as much as the small corrections of the last two booms – just don’t expect any price growth over the next 3 years. The forecasts for Melbourne are very similar although we may see a slightly larger correction in unit prices and a small correction in house prices.
Brisbane is forecast to see a drop in unit prices due to the very high level of unit development in the CBD and fringe but house price growth will continue, making the Brisbane house market the strongest growth market in Australia over the next 3 years.
Take away the emotive language of this daily mail article and the truth behind it shouldn’t hurt any property investor in our east coast cities too much and, in fact, should see Brisbane house investors continue to smile! Read more https://goo.gl/a6XArr
If you want to know more about the QBE Forecasts for Housing Price growth or find out more about growth suburbs contact us at info@limepropertysolutions.com.au.

Brisbane suburbs where house prices have doubled

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Brisbane suburbs where house prices have doubled
It’s interesting to read about the number of Brisbane suburbs where house prices have doubled over the last 10 years.
(Please contact us at info@limepropertysolutions.com.au for further information or the chance to discuss this and other issues in the comfort of your own home)
The news always seems to be centred on the Sydney market with the occasional comment on what is happening in Melbourne. We read about property investors (and maybe a few home owners) almost buying out a brand new release in Macquarie Park in Sydney at the weekend but one story you will find very difficult to find is about Sydney suburbs that have doubled in value over the last 10 years – there are none. It’s a slightly different story in Melbourne where we do have a few suburbs that have doubled in value in the last ten years but we read and hear so little about Brisbane.

Well, according to Domain Group Data, here are the suburbs in Brisbane that have more or less doubled in value over the last 10 years:-

• South Brisbane*
• Newmarket*
• Wishart* (*have more than doubled in value, according to Domain Group data)\
• Macgregor
• Cannon Hill
• Northgate
• Sunnybank
Apparently the growth is not all about people paying more to get into a suburb. Simon Pressley said, “While someone in South Brisbane may have bought for $500,000 and now their home is worth $1 million, they might have spent $800,000 on the home.”
Sunnybank has attracted a very large number of residents from a Chinese background and like many of the well-populated Chinese Australian areas in Sydney, prices have just grown and grown.
Probably not surprisingly, seven of the top ten of the biggest growth suburbs are located within five-kilometres from the CBD.
According to Andrew Wilson from Domain, most of the growth had occurred in the past three years. Similar to the claims being made about the growth in Melbourne and Sydney, low interest rates over the past few years are being attributed to the cause of much of this growth.
It is interesting to note that BIS Shrapnel’s annual housing report released last week is still predicting house price growth to be stronger in Brisbane than in any other capital city over the next few years, so look out for more additions to the list of Brisbane suburbs where house prices have doubled over the last 10 years. Read more here: https://goo.gl/4ChtqG
If you want to know more growth suburbs in Brisbane and how they may affect your property investment choices contact us at info@limepropertysolutions.com.au.

Understanding the property cycle with the proof

By | Auction, best investment, Investment, Market, property cycle, Real Estate | No Comments

Understanding the property cycle with the proof

Wouldn’t it be fantastic to find that all the information we are given by the real estate industry is totally true and utterly dependable? We do our best to assist clients in understanding the property cycle with the proof of what is actually happening in our markets.

This can be a very difficult task sometimes as one of the most powerful lobby groups in Australia, The Real Estate Industry, supply information to the media in such a way that it totally clouds the reality of what is happening in the actual market place.

Auction clearance rates are very high, but selling two properties out of 2 for auction is a 100% clearance rate!

Auction clearance rates are very high, but selling two properties out of 2 for auction is a 100% clearance rate!

It would be fantastic to see a property market that increased all the time by a nice 7%-8% on average each year. This would see property prices double every nine or ten years and would provide the property investor with the certainty so many seek. There is no doubt that good well-positioned property in the Sydney market has achieved growth of just under 8% for at least the last 40 years and after the last 5 years I believe that half the population of this great city now believe that property prices will just continue to grow year after year.

The same was true at the end of the last Sydney property growth cycle in 2003. The shock and surprise of many who bought off- plan investment property in particular, in 2002 and 2003, to settle in a market that was around 6% and more lower than its 2003 peak on completion in 2005/6 not only shocked but saw many lose tens of thousands of dollars in deposits on property they could no longer obtain a bank loan for as it was not worth the contracted purchase price.

Of course, we had a little ‘shock’ in Sydney when prices clearly went backwards in the first quarter of this year – an expected small correction at the end of a quite amazing growth period of almost 5 years. Since then we read every week of the fabulous clearance rates and the strength of the markets both in Sydney and Melbourne. This weekend’s headlines are very similar to the last 2 or 3 months Dr Andrew Wilson | Aug 28, 2016 1:48 pm Sydney spring auction market opens with more strong results for property sellers  or maybe have a look at Melbourne  Dr Andrew Wilson | Aug 28, 2016 12:49 pm Top start for Melbourne spring auction property market.

So all is looking fantastic for everlasting growth in these headlines. The reality is perhaps clearer to see in this little article published this weekend, http://goo.gl/cHfcMz.  Receipts from residential stamp duty in July were 12 per cent lower than the same month last year, analysis by investment bank RBC Capital Markets shows. Year-on-year changes in monthly NSW stamp duty receipts were at the lowest mark in nearly five years.

Understanding the property cycle with the proof

So clearance rates may be high but we should understand that if only 2 properties are listed for auction and two properties sell by auction, then we have a 100% clearance rate. While current clearance rates are high, they are being calculated on around half the number of homes for auction than we had 12 months ago. The market is obviously significantly quieter when the State is seeing the lowest revenue on stamp duty in the last 5 years. This is nothing to worry about, it’s just another sign that the growth in the Sydney property market has almost certainly peaked and its maybe time to look towards another market that is more likely to be in its growth phase of the cycle.

Buying an investment property before the boom

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Buying an investment property before the boom

The goal of all property investors is to ensure they are buying an investment property before the boom and not at the very top of a growth cycle.

At Lime Property Solutions, we have always believed that good research is key to ensuring that you are buying your investment property before the boom.

Stick to a selection criteria and buy property before the boom

Stick to a selection criteria and buy property before the boom

We always start with the ‘big picture’ statistics. It is these State by State and city by city statistics and forecasts that will inevitable point us towards the city with the highest probability of being at a point before the boom. Once we have the ‘proof’ of best city, it’s then good to have a very close look at the macro factors of general areas. These include transport links and ease of access and egress, infrastructure growth, educational facilities from child care to university, medical facilities including hospitals, shopping, entertainment, leisure areas such as parks and entertainment centres, infrastructure growth, job growth and population growth just to mention a few.

When we get down to the suburb we research the micro including a suburb’s population growth, its major existing attributes (like a train station or sought-after school), and any plans for change in the short term (like an expanded shopping centre), then drill down to the market trends that will tell you what’s happening right now. Specifically we are looking at very short drive or walk-to facilities including child care, schools, convenience stores, cafes, salons, pools, sports ground, etc.

We do not agree that you should stick to your own home area. While this may give some peace of mind, as an investor you can be missing out for many years on excellent growth opportunities by diversifying to different cities. For example, remember, we had no growth in Sydney between 2003 and 2010/11. In this same period investors in Brisbane saw a 150% increase in house prices and in Perth it was close to 200%.

The research outside of your own area can be done by professionals like Lime Property Solutions; this is exactly the service we provide.

John McGrath has written a very good article on this topic although we believe he is contradicting himself and not helping any investors by suggesting investment in your own back yard only!

Call us at Lime for more information on how you can be buying an investment property before the boom!    Read more: http://goo.gl/Z30w1W

All part of the property cycle

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All part of the property cycle; cracks emerging in Sydney’s apartment rental markets

This report from last week is one of the first we’ve seen but its all part of the property cycle and it can only get worse for Sydney over the short term.

investment property vacancy rates on the rise

investment property growth in six years time?

Just look back a few ‘blogs’ and you’ll see we have been predicting this oversupply for some months. It is pretty well universally accepted that a property market which is under-supplied, where demand outpaces supply, will witness significant property price increase. The opposite effect, a property market that is over-supplied will see prices level out or correct slightly and all see rental yields fall as landlords ‘compete’ for tenants  for their property investment.

There has been a significant upward movement of vacancy rates in Sydney over the last month of up to 0.4% according to Domain. While the over-all vacancy rate is still below what most would consider a ‘balanced market’ of between 3% and 4% vacancy, it is the third major sign of a flattening investment property market for Sydney. The first sign is softening yields or lower rental to put it another way. Yields in Sydney generally are at all time lows as rental increases have not been anywhere close to price growth. The second major indicator of course, was the slowdown of growth and the correction in prices we saw over the first few months of this year. The next obvious sign is the supply now exceeding demand and watching vacancy rates rise, all part of the property cycle!

 Parramatta has seen one of the largest rises in vacancy rates but with about 61,000 new apartments completing across the city in 2015 to 2017, over 15,000 more units than completed between 2012 to 2014 vacancy rates will certainly raise more over the next couple of years. The forecast is that vacancy rates will peak around 4%. This figure, if it proves to be true, should not cause a great deal of stress to property investors but it does seem rather low.

Full story here: http://goo.gl/bEseIB

When will Sydney House prices boom again?

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When will Sydney House prices boom again?

The question already being asked, now that Sydney house prices seem to have peaked is “When will Sydney House prices boom again?”

House prices drop in almost all of Sydney’s suburbs over the last two quarters has seen the median house price dip below $1 million.

investment property growth in six years time?

investment property growth in six years time?

Many state that after a three-year property boom, Sydney’s house prices have fallen for the last six months indicating that the boom is clearly over. In fact, with the exception of 2012 which was a pretty ‘flat’ year in Sydney, the boom just over actually started in 2010. This makes the growth ‘boom’ period nearer to five years rather than just the last three years. Of course, the only areas that showed any good growth in from 2010 to 2013 were the Eastern Suburbs, Lower North Shore and Inner West. After the lull in price growth during 2012, we then saw the ‘ripple effect’ take hold as price increases rippled out to our outer suburbs. This was all quite predictable although the large percentage gain on median property prices over this period was a surprise to most. It just wasn’t expected to be such a big boom!

Since September 2015, when the median house price reached $1,045,000, the median Sydney price has fallen below the $1 million mark. The big question is “Where to from here?”

If history is any guide, the next boom is only five or six years away…. it nearly always is after the peak of each growth cycle.

We just need to keep a close eye on supply tightening up, Sydney population growth, the general economic conditions, unemployment and job growth, increasing rentals and affordability based on how much our average pay packets increase over the next few years. When we see all of the above begin to increase demand, then we’ll know that we are at the beginning of our next Sydney growth cycle.

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Good news for Sydney’s first home buyers

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Good news for Sydney’s first home buyers .. . and not much to worry about for property investors

So Sydney has a median price below $1million again. The latest data published by Domain shows that a median priced Sydney property will only cost $995,804! This is an almost 4.7% drop from the peak prices of six months ago.

property-bubbleInterestingly, this percentage drop is slightly more than the house price drop of 2008 to 2009 at the height of the global financial crisis. It is the largest drop since the end of the last Sydney house price growth cycle of 1996 to 2003. For those with longer memories of the end of the last growth cycle in Sydney, it’s not a lot to be concerned about and in fact, is pretty much the expected outcome after such a long and large period of price growth.

We should try and cast our mind back to 2004-2006 after the end of the last Sydney ‘boom’ in 2003. The next headlines which we will be seeing pretty soon will concern the number of investment properties sold off plan to property investors in 2014/15. As prices drop and we approach an oversupply of units, bank valuations will not nearly match the prices paid by investors in these ‘late purchase’ off plan investments. A bank valuation of say 15% less than the purchase price may mean that the potential buyer can only borrow 15% less than was originally intended. Investors will not be able to borrow enough to settle and/or will walk away losing their deposits on units that are now not worth as much as they are paying for them. The result will be that more inexperienced developers will be forced into liquidation and there we have a whole new set of headlines coming our way.

Maybe I’ll refer you back to this blog in a few month’s time when the first headlines appear. The moral of this story?  It’s all cyclical.

How to make money by understanding property cycles

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McGrath Real Estate Shares lose 31% after trading stop

One of our best known Real Estate personalities, John McGrath, has proved just how well he understands the cyclic nature of the property market. He has not made his money on buying and selling investment property this time but in McGrath Real Estate Shares when he floated his company on the ASX at the top of the property growth cycle in Sydney in December 2015.

Mr McGrath listed his company on the ASX at the peak of the Sydney housing boom, at the obvious peak of his company’s earning potential and walked away with a cool $30 million plus for his efforts. Will it make such a difference now if McGrath Real Estate Shares lose 31%.Mcgrath

Like many other experienced commentators, Mr McGrath expected the market in Sydney to cool after December 2015 and was suggesting that investment property investors should look at South East Queensland as an area with much higher potential for short-term growth than the ‘hot’ Sydney market. It is very surprising that Mr McGrath is now reported to be claiming,

“an unforeseen low volume of listings and sales in the first half of April, particularly in the north and north-western suburbs of Sydney, has led to an earnings downgrade for the 2016 year.”

McGrath, which listed in December, has seen its share price fall by as much as 31 per cent when it came out of a trading halt. The share closed down 40¢ to 90¢. They last traded on Thursday at $1.30. I suppose the big question must be, was this really a much larger drop in the market than he expected when the float papers were prepared at the end of last year?

To us, it does demonstrate the power of understanding the property market and timing things correctly to get the most out of your investment – whither it is real property investment or just selling up your Real estate Company!

Full story: http://goo.gl/FSBEq2

Property bubble fears are overblown says CBA

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Property bubble fears are overblown

Property bubble fears are overblown, it always seems hard for our largest bank CBA to avoid being caught out ripping off their average client. If it’s not stealing money through financial advice that only benefits the Bank and their Financial Planner, then it’s about making claims on life and trauma insurances almost impossible for those who have paid insurance to CBA in good faith for years only to be turned away when they need to claim!

The following story is closely related to our last Blog. This time the Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief economist has spent his bank-funded time doing something that will be exceptionally helpful to us all!

property-bubble

 

He informs us, (after much counting and checking I should imagine) that the headline about an Australian House Bubble has now appeared three thousand and ninety three times (3093) in the media over the last 12 months. Isn’t that fascinating!

Mr Blythe goes on in his article to explain with some nice graphs that like nearly everyone else in Australia who knows a little about how the Australian Property market operates, that there is no bubble and we are very unlikely to see one for a very long time.

Again, a headline similar to No Nuclear Attacks on Australia Predicted This Month! … Another headline we could write about but what is the point?

Full story http://goo.gl/7wVAU7

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