Category

Auction

The Block is a warning for renovators

By | Auction, best investment, Market, News, Property Research, Real Estate, Research | No Comments

The Block is a warning for renovators

It seems to be easy money, buy an old place, renovate and make a fortune but the reality is the Block is a warning for renovators. Most, if not all of the many series of The Block have actually made huge losses but the average viewer is left with the feeling that renovation is a great way to make money!

The worry is these shows give a totally unrealistic expectation to budding renovators.

Washington Brown, Lime’s preferred supplier of depreciation schedules (www.washingtonbrown.com.au) has recently run some numbers on the supposedly successful sales in the recent Port Melbourne series and the numbers do not add up!

(Please contact us at info@limepropertysolutions.com.au for further information or the chance to discuss this and other issues in the comfort of your own home.

The following is from The Washington Brown Report:-

“ From a financial point of view the development, which consisted of transforming a 1920s art deco building into a luxury apartment block, was one of the worst he has ever seen.

While I understand the magic of television, Channel 9 has outdone David Copperfield in creating the illusion of a profit to the public!

Let’s look at the numbers:

According to reports Channel 9 bought the site for around $5 million, which allowed for 6 apartments. Only 5 were sold on TV and for calculation purposes let’s say the acquisition costs is $4.2 million.

The construction cost and depreciation allowances totalled over $11 million, for the 5 apartments alone.

That’s $15.2 million alone in construction and acquisition costs.

It’s worth noting that under the Income Tax Assessment Act 1997 the initial vendor (ie. the developer) has an obligation to pass on the actual costs of construction to the purchaser, where the costs are known.

Let’s not forget there’s then a variety of other costs involved in buying and selling, and undertaking a property development, including:

  • Stamp duty
  • GST on the sale
  • Demolition
  • Marketing
  • Agents’ fees
  • Legal fees
  • Interest
  • Rates

Whilst some of these costs may have been avoided due to contra deals, the bulk would have to be outlaid by Channel 9.

I estimate these additional costs to conservatively be $2 million, which brings the total cost to $17.2 million.

The Block’s total sales realised just a little over $12 million, leaving the development in the red by around $5 million, yet it has been indicated that profits of up to $715,000 were made by the contestants.”

 

Just Google “How much did the block cost channel 9” , probably best to go to page two of your results and read some of these articles. It is unlikely that any of The Block series has actually made money and the The Block is a warning for renovators, not an endorsement to make money!

If you want to know more about the pitfalls of renovation and how to make money from property without the work and hassle contact: info@limepropertysolutions.com.au.

Understanding the property cycle with the proof

By | Auction, best investment, Investment, Market, property cycle, Real Estate | No Comments

Understanding the property cycle with the proof

Wouldn’t it be fantastic to find that all the information we are given by the real estate industry is totally true and utterly dependable? We do our best to assist clients in understanding the property cycle with the proof of what is actually happening in our markets.

This can be a very difficult task sometimes as one of the most powerful lobby groups in Australia, The Real Estate Industry, supply information to the media in such a way that it totally clouds the reality of what is happening in the actual market place.

Auction clearance rates are very high, but selling two properties out of 2 for auction is a 100% clearance rate!

Auction clearance rates are very high, but selling two properties out of 2 for auction is a 100% clearance rate!

It would be fantastic to see a property market that increased all the time by a nice 7%-8% on average each year. This would see property prices double every nine or ten years and would provide the property investor with the certainty so many seek. There is no doubt that good well-positioned property in the Sydney market has achieved growth of just under 8% for at least the last 40 years and after the last 5 years I believe that half the population of this great city now believe that property prices will just continue to grow year after year.

The same was true at the end of the last Sydney property growth cycle in 2003. The shock and surprise of many who bought off- plan investment property in particular, in 2002 and 2003, to settle in a market that was around 6% and more lower than its 2003 peak on completion in 2005/6 not only shocked but saw many lose tens of thousands of dollars in deposits on property they could no longer obtain a bank loan for as it was not worth the contracted purchase price.

Of course, we had a little ‘shock’ in Sydney when prices clearly went backwards in the first quarter of this year – an expected small correction at the end of a quite amazing growth period of almost 5 years. Since then we read every week of the fabulous clearance rates and the strength of the markets both in Sydney and Melbourne. This weekend’s headlines are very similar to the last 2 or 3 months Dr Andrew Wilson | Aug 28, 2016 1:48 pm Sydney spring auction market opens with more strong results for property sellers  or maybe have a look at Melbourne  Dr Andrew Wilson | Aug 28, 2016 12:49 pm Top start for Melbourne spring auction property market.

So all is looking fantastic for everlasting growth in these headlines. The reality is perhaps clearer to see in this little article published this weekend, http://goo.gl/cHfcMz.  Receipts from residential stamp duty in July were 12 per cent lower than the same month last year, analysis by investment bank RBC Capital Markets shows. Year-on-year changes in monthly NSW stamp duty receipts were at the lowest mark in nearly five years.

Understanding the property cycle with the proof

So clearance rates may be high but we should understand that if only 2 properties are listed for auction and two properties sell by auction, then we have a 100% clearance rate. While current clearance rates are high, they are being calculated on around half the number of homes for auction than we had 12 months ago. The market is obviously significantly quieter when the State is seeing the lowest revenue on stamp duty in the last 5 years. This is nothing to worry about, it’s just another sign that the growth in the Sydney property market has almost certainly peaked and its maybe time to look towards another market that is more likely to be in its growth phase of the cycle.

Property investment surge in Sydney

By | Auction, best investment, Economy, Investment, Negative Gearing, Property Research | No Comments

Property investment surge in Sydney

On May 20th the blog was about a property investment surge in Sydney according to auction clearance results and a possible change to negative gearing laws.

price-growth

Auction clearance rates decline dramatically

According to Domain, we had a huge number of investors rushing to get in before Mr Shorten changes the rules in 2 year’s time. Just a couple of days later, the same organisation published an article supporting this supposed “huge increase in property investors” entitled FOMO, (short for Fear of Missing Out), where they stated:

“Forget about John Symond’s warning of “Armageddon” for house prices if negative gearing is abolished.  At least in the short term, the artificial deadline on negative gearing is likely to push up Sydney property prices, regardless of who wins the election.

Last weekend’s boom-like 80 per cent auction clearance rate has experts wondering if it’s set to be repeated this weekend, indicating the boom is back. Labor has set a termination date of July 1 next year for the policy that delivers tax breaks to investors. After that, only buyers of new properties will be able to negatively gear.”

This ‘boom” was based on little else but the auction clearance rates which were based on about half the number of auctions that took place at this time last year when the real Sydney price boom was entering its last quarter.

It’s time we all have to accept as property investors that for the time being, and probably the next few years, the price rises in investment property in the city of Sydney are over.

From the very positive headlines of two weeks ago, we now read, “ Sydney recorded a clearance rate of 72.8 per cent on Saturday a far cry from the remarkable 80.3 per cent rate recorded two weeks ago. Sydney hosted higher numbers of auctions on the weekend with 599 home listed to go under the hammer compared to 573 the previous weekend. Auction listings however continue to track well below the levels of last autumn with 858 auctions conducted on the same weekend last year.”

So, in summary, if the freak clearance figures we saw a couple of weeks ago were due to a huge surge of property investors who were frightened of missing out because of small changes to negative gearing in two years time if Labor win the election, then the results of Saturday must be interpreted as “Sydney Property investment buyers now convinced Mr Turnbull will win next election”. All based on Auction clearance results of course…. I don’t think so!

Read full story: http://goo.gl/LwtyYN

Investors surge back into property market as election looms

By | Auction, domain, News, Property Research, Research | No Comments

Investors surge back into property market as election looms

Interesting headline from Domain “Investors surge back into property market as election looms.”
I read this story initially with the thought that this really makes sense for a couple of reasons, however the large spike in purchases and signs of a booming market yet again, just don’t seem to be here!
For any would be property investor the time for procrastination is certainly gone. While we still don’t think that we will see a change in the law for negative gearing, in the unlikely chance that this does occur, Mr Shorten and his team is assuring the Australian public that all current rules will be ‘grandfathered” which basically means that there will be no changes what so ever to anyone who owns an investment property before any new rules are introduced.
With this knowledge, it would be quite understandable to see “Investors surge back into property market as election looms” but the on the ground reality for Lime Property Solutions at least is that there has been no major increase in enquiry over the last few weeks and as far as we can see from number of auctions and clearance rates, there are no signs of a rival in house price growth in Sydney and in fact we are still seeing a market in correction with prices still sliding … not something you would expect with a surge of investors heading back to the market.
The recent article states:
 “NSW remained the favoured state for investors, with investor activity up 30 per cent over the month to March, an analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics data by Domain Group chief economist Andrew Wilson shows.”

“Residential investors have stormed back into Australian housing markets with lower interest rates and the prospect of changes to property taxes set to continue to fuel growth in this market segment over coming months,” Dr Wilson said.

While this statement may or may not be true, I’m not quite sure why figures for March are the signal that investors are coming back into the market because of an election called two months later?

I do think Dr Wilson doers a great job of presenting himself as The Expert while constantly supporting and spruiking up the real estate market, particularly in Sydney. I totally agree with the concept of investors surging back into property market as the election looms as it makes such perfect sense for them to do so. We’re just not sure if the headline is a wish for the near future rather than the reality of the day.

 

Full story: http://goo.gl/I7nGPu

Sydney Auction clearance rates

By | Auction, Financial, Investment, News, Properties, Property Research, Property Solutions, Research | No Comments

Sydney’s auction market – A tale of two cities?
Sydney Auction clearance rates are in the news again. The Sydney weekend home auction market may have passed its biggest test of the year so far. Another ‘Super Saturday” has passed (aren’t most Saturdays ‘super Saturday’s now?)  and according to those deeply entrenched in the Real Estate industry like our fiends at Domain, it was all good news.

Thanks to our extremely expensive areas of the inner west, lower and upper north shore and the northern beaches recording clearance rates of over 92% in the lower North Shore to 85% in the inner west, we can ‘boast’ a reasonably healthy Sydney clearance rate of 75.8%…… So the question is how does a North Shore clearance rate of over 92% translate to a Sydney clearance rate of 75.8%?

Well a closer look at greater Sydney will show a clearance rate of approximately 0% in the few auctions in the Blue Mountain, The Central Coast showed only 57.9% while one of Sydney’s strongest growth areas in 2015, The South West was way down at just 45.7%

The past weekend’s Super Saturday of auctions may well prove to be the biggest auction day of the year for 2016.

Auction-market

 

There were 911 homes listed for auction on Saturday, which was well below the all-time auction record of 1128 set over Easter Super Saturday last year at this time. Sydney Auction clearance rates.

The inner-suburban, higher-priced regions continue to show good results, in sharp contrast to outer suburbs to the west where clearance rates remain considerably lower.

Full story: http://goo.gl/spsZc2

Follow us on Facebook: https://goo.gl/qlVppi

Twitter: @LimeProperty1

 

~ Lime Property Solutions