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Economy

Will the budget affect investment property prices?

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Will the budget affect investment property prices?

Like every federal budget we have ended up with a few winners and a few losers but our main interest is will the budget affect investment property prices?

Mr Turnbull in Canberra

Mr Turnbull in Canberra

Tuesday night did not really give us any surprises as nearly all measures announced had been flagged in the previous few weeks. We knew there will not be any changes to capital gains tax or negative gearing while we still have the Turnbull Government. We have a few commentators who do believe that the crackdown on superannuation tax concessions for the rich, coupled with a budget day cut to interest rates, could increase the flow of funds into negatively geared investment property.

On the other hand, with only the top 4% of earners affected by the caps now placed on superannuation, in the unlikely event that they do decide to park their ‘extra’ funds into negatively geared investment property, it is still unlikely that this would have much of an effect on the Australian property market. With all the arguments on the topic of negative gearing we’ve been hearing pre budget, with more to come as we lead up to the election, we should all now be aware that negative gearing is a general investment strategy which just happens to work for investment in property as well as all other investment assets.

We may see some of the 4% of high earners look for some tax relief in negative gearing through property, but it is highly unlikely that this will generally affect investment property pricing.

Of course, another group to ‘miss out’ on the budget were first time property buyers. Had we seen some greater incentives on assistance for this group, then we may have seen small differences at the entry level of the property market. However, again the first home buyer has been ignored so no changes there.

Two links here for those interested in further media comment: http://goo.gl/9aWnlW  and

http://goo.gl/StLBlL

Who Really Benefits from Negative Gearing?

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Who Really Benefits from Negative Gearing?

Great piece of research from the ABC on who really benefits from negative gearing. It’s worth taking a look and we’ve also posted the full article on our media page. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-26/negative-gearing-by-occupation/7357718

There are two articles today of extreme interest in this debate, the one above on who really benefits from negative gearing, a list by profession prepared by the ABC and the following article which clearly explains the myths and the facts for property investment and how negative gearing really works and its effects on the housing market in Australia. This article is complete, it’s too good not to allow you to read in full.

“ Let’s answer the myths about who uses negative gearing, what benefits they get and what would be the impact on the economy if the tax system was radically changed.property-bubble

Who really benefits from negative gearing?

Treasurer Scott Morrison dismisses a report indicating high income earners receive the most advantage from negative gearing. Audio courtesy of Radio National.

Another day and another set of half-truths and myths about negative gearing.

This time, the Grattan Institute is calling for retrospective changes to housing investment that would raise tens of billions of dollars in new taxes on property owners. This is even more than federal Labor’s policy that would raise $32 billion in additional property taxes over the next 10 years.

These new taxes are all predicated on myths about negative gearing, rather than on modelling the economic impacts of change.

So let’s answer the myths about who uses negative gearing, what benefits they get and what would be the impact on the Budget and the economy if the current taxation system was radically changed.

Myth:  Negative gearing mainly benefits those on higher incomes

Fact:  58 per cent of net rental loss deductions by value go to the people with taxable incomes less than $80,000.  Only 13 per cent go to those with taxable incomes above $200,000.

Myth: Property investors are driving up house prices.

Fact: Housing investors are helping increase supply and that’s taking pressure off house prices. Last year, Australia constructed a record 220,000 new dwellings – 65 per cent were purchased by owner/occupiers and 35 per cent by investors. The investors are vital to helping Australia meet its housing shortfall.

Myth: Negative gearing disproportionately benefits surgeons and anaesthetists

Fact: There are 891 anaesthetists and 1020 surgeons who negatively gear.  By comparison, there are 89,900 clerical staff, 48,900 teachers and 33,700 nurses and midwives who negatively gear. Changes to negative gearing will shut the door to these people to build a “nest egg” for the future.

Myth: Negative gearing is a big hit on the budget

Fact: The cost to the budget of negative gearing is dropping. Net rental losses from investment properties have fallen from $7.9 billion in 2011-12 to $3.7 billion in 2013-14.  This is a drop of 53 per cent in two years.

Myth: Negative gearing is a rort that does nothing for the economy

Fact: The property industry employs 1.1 million people. The construction of a typical home involves 40 tradies and contractors. The industry is a vital part of the economy. Labor’s negative gearing policy puts an additional $32 billion in taxes on property over the next 10 years.

But all these arguments miss a bigger point – those blaming negative gearing for all the woes in our housing markets have constructed a strawman.

When in fact the chronic undersupply in the past decade – leaving a deficit of 200,000 homes against demand – is the root cause of escalating prices and where policymakers should turn their attention.

In Sydney, we are still paying the price for the policies of the previous state government that declared “Sydney is full”. The prices that families, couples and singles are paying for housing in Sydney, and in other capitals is a direct result of policies that hinder supply.

No one can escape the laws of supply and demand – and policies that smash negative gearing and drive up capital gains tax, will affect investment decisions.

It is only in recent years that we have started to tackle the housing deficit in our country, and as we have done so, house prices and rents have started to moderate.

However, demand pressures will remain as our population grows.  In Sydney alone, it is estimated  we will need to construct an additional 44,000 dwellings every year for the next 15 years just to keep up with demand.

During a time when housing investment is vital for jobs and to keep a lid on housing prices, the Grattan Institute and the federal Opposition are proposing radical changes to property investment. They are arguing that property owners, who last year paid a record $45 billion in property taxes (up over 10 per cent), should be slugged even more.

The Opposition has said its policy will not impact investment decisions. My question is when was the last time a government took an extra $32 billion from an industry and expected it to have no impact?

Major changes to negative gearing will make housing investment less attractive. This will, in turn, impact housing supply – and we will return to the bad old days, when supply did not keep up with demand.

If we want to make housing more affordable in our country, we must tackle the blockages to supply and not impose new ones. Proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax will make a bad situation even worse.”

Ken Morrison is chief executive of the Property Council of Australia: The full article was published in the Sydney Morning Herald on 28/4/2016, click here: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/neative-gearing-isnt-the-bad-guy-in-the-housing-debate-20160427-gog59a#ixzz475X7LNkF

Negative gearing reduced to schoolboy debating

By | Economy, Investment, Negative Gearing, Property Research, Real Estate, rent | No Comments

Negative gearing reduced to schoolboy debating

“Negative gearing reduced to schoolboy debating” states one of our most respected papers today. It was also said that the only thing worse for a government than houses becoming more expensive is houses becoming cheaper…. so Mr Turnbull has now set one of the big issues for the coming election on negative gearing. Rather than keep repeating what negative gearing is all about, take a quick lesson from our FAQ page click here (8th question down on the list): http://propertyinvest.co/property-investment-frequently-asked-questions-faqs-information/

This is the 4th blog we’ve written on negative gearing in the last couple of months simply because it’s such a hot topic! I do think this is the best headline we’ve seen yet; a headline that really captures what all the fuss is about – lots of shouting, lots of claims and counter claims, big assertions and at the end of the day ‘schoolboy debating’ with a confusing outcome.

The Prime Minister says no change to negative gearing or capital gains tax

The Prime Minister says no change to negative gearing or capital gains tax

So let’s just try and summarise again what the two sides are saying. Let’s look at the current Government position and Mr Turnbull first:-

  • No change at all to people who wish to buy an investment property things to go on as is.
  • No change at all to capital gains tax things to go on as is
  • No change at all to our current system – nothing is going to change!

Hopefully this is quite clear to all.

Now for the leader of the opposition who does want some change to property investment and people hoping to purchase an investment property to assist with building asset for their future. Firstly, for those who currently own investment property:-

  • No change at all to people who own investment property
  • Slight increase in capital gains tax (maybe?)
  • No change at all to everything else

Quite clear? Mr Shorten will ‘grandfather’ current rules so no one who currently owns investment property will be affected by new rules. The big change he does intend making is that negative gearing will not be allowed on older investment properties purchased after 2017. However, if you purchase a brand new investment property, then there will be no changes at all!

Hopefully this makes the implications of all the debate simple and clear.

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When will Sydney House prices boom again?

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When will Sydney House prices boom again?

The question already being asked, now that Sydney house prices seem to have peaked is “When will Sydney House prices boom again?”

House prices drop in almost all of Sydney’s suburbs over the last two quarters has seen the median house price dip below $1 million.

investment property growth in six years time?

investment property growth in six years time?

Many state that after a three-year property boom, Sydney’s house prices have fallen for the last six months indicating that the boom is clearly over. In fact, with the exception of 2012 which was a pretty ‘flat’ year in Sydney, the boom just over actually started in 2010. This makes the growth ‘boom’ period nearer to five years rather than just the last three years. Of course, the only areas that showed any good growth in from 2010 to 2013 were the Eastern Suburbs, Lower North Shore and Inner West. After the lull in price growth during 2012, we then saw the ‘ripple effect’ take hold as price increases rippled out to our outer suburbs. This was all quite predictable although the large percentage gain on median property prices over this period was a surprise to most. It just wasn’t expected to be such a big boom!

Since September 2015, when the median house price reached $1,045,000, the median Sydney price has fallen below the $1 million mark. The big question is “Where to from here?”

If history is any guide, the next boom is only five or six years away…. it nearly always is after the peak of each growth cycle.

We just need to keep a close eye on supply tightening up, Sydney population growth, the general economic conditions, unemployment and job growth, increasing rentals and affordability based on how much our average pay packets increase over the next few years. When we see all of the above begin to increase demand, then we’ll know that we are at the beginning of our next Sydney growth cycle.

Read more click here; http://goo.gl/oPgD2e

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More larger homes available for young families?

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Call to unlock $1 trillion in housing wealth – making more larger homes available for young families.

Helping our retired population downsize could assist in making more larger homes available for young families. One of the blogs further down this page was highlighting the fact that a recent survey shows Australians aged over 65 suffer the second highest relative income poverty rate of the wealthy countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development with only Korean retirees worse off than Australians.

larger-homes

Catherine Nance of PWC has written that many baby boomers could boost their standard of living if penalties that apply to selling the family home were removed.

Her report Unlocking Housing Wealth – options to meet retirement needs proposes a range of policy changes including:

  • Targeted stamp duty relief for older Australians downsizing to smaller homes, similar to stamp duty relief for first home buyers.
  • Partial relief from the age pension means test for people who take out reverse mortgages or downsize their homes.
  • Greater assistance for seniors who rent their homes, who are at a relative disadvantage to homeowners.
  • Some tightening of the age pension asset test for very wealthy retirees, possibly through a cap on the exempt value of the family home.

I’m sure these measures would assist our many asset rich but cash poor retiring Australians. The other question to be answered would be if these measures would assist in freeing up family homes in Sydney and family homes in Melbourne, in particular, for young families who require larger homes closer to our major city centres?

Read more:  http://goo.gl/Sp0ApZ

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Social insects could transform strategies for city and town planning

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Social insects could transform strategies for city and town planning

Ants, along with bees and other social insects, could help town planners solve bottlenecks in city infrastructure and urban renewal, Australian scientists have revealed.

social-insects

 

The business of foraging for food, building nests and trails and growing colonies were all skills from which city planners could learn.

It makes a lot of sense to me. As a child I used to be fascinated with ant nests and sometimes assisted one of my neighbours with his bee hives. Not once did I witness a bottle neck or a traffic jam, so maybe there is something in this!

We’ll soon see the difference that smart infrastructure can make in Sydney and everyone who has arrived or departed from Brisbane Airport since the new infrastructure was completed has commented on the ease of  access and egress.
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Tourist Boom

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Forget about another mining boom – The Tourist Boom has begun!

There is a very interesting article just released in Business News Australia this week that is worthy of a read concerning our current and expanding tourist boom. The article was written by Nick Nicols.

FEARS of faltering Chinese growth and a global downturn are all playing in Australia’s favour with one forecaster predicting we are on the verge of a new economic boom, and one that’s likely to last for some time

Dr Frank Gelber, chief economist with BIS Shrapnel, told a Brisbane briefing that the next growth story unfolding for the Australian economy is in the services sector, and particularly tourism and education.

Both of these industry sectors are now exceeded pre-GFC levels, picking up strength after years of ‘repression’ from a strong dollar that at one stage was trading above parity with the US currency.

“We ain’t seen nothing yet,” says Gelber. “Five years from now these sectors will be booming, and I don’t use that term lightly.”

While China may be perceived as the growth market in both education and tourism, Gelber forecasts domestic travellers will be a major driver of momentum. He says education will also be a conduit for increased migration, adding to the economic growth story.

Gelber forecasts tourism regions such as the Gold Coast and Cairns will be in the sweet spot of the looming boom, driving population and construction growth.

“They will be the big growth regions of the future,” he says.

“Retail sales will be picking up, housing demand will be picking up. We will see a classic upswing, the sort of thing that we saw in the mining regions, but not as strong, not as quick and not as fickle.

“What we’ve seen now are only the beginnings of a pick-up. We’ve got a long catch-up to go to get back to where we would have been if not for a high dollar.

“If you look at tourist towns they were booming before the dollar went up, then fell into a long period of dismal, suppressed activity.

“Now the tourists are coming back, not just from overseas but more particularly domestic tourists as well. That is boosting activity across the board and it will end up boosting population growth.

Full article can be found at: http://goo.gl/9mvGTA

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It’s in the news No Housing Crash!

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It’s in the news No Housing Crash

The Housing Crash we are NOT going to have would not be good for first-home buyers!

Don’t you just love these stories about nothing, it’s in the news No Housing Crash! Here is another one explaining that a housing crash we are definitely not going to have (full explanation and 6 reasons why not included) would not be good for first home buyers.

Why do we bother? Maybe we should do a blog on the consequences of a major invasion of earth by Martians and why it is unlikely to happen!

Anyway, for those who might be interested, here is another scary non-news story http://goo.gl/WRgvPj

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Negative Gearing is here to stay!

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Negative Gearing is here to stay!

How many more times will we see a newspaper headline about the subject of negative gearing this year? It apparently makes great politics but how boring for the voters, negative gearing is here to stay!

Every year for the last 20 years at least we’ve had the scare-mongering, usually from the party in opposition, about changes to negative gearing laws. Now it’s become an election issue so the topic will be on our front page news until the middle of the year. Our front [page news today sees our prime minister take Labor’s policy outcomes many steps further. Not only would the Labor policy be a terrible blow to property investors, but it is really a ‘secret plan” to kill off all tax relief to all forms of investment! It has to be noted that negative gearing is a legitimate tool to use in all forms of investment and is not strictly limited to investment property only. The real wealthy use negative gearing in other forms of investment including the share market.

negative-gearing-3

 

“The Prime Minister said Labor’s policy is actually a plan to end tax deductibility on all business expenses against ordinary income, including margin loans used to buy shares, and even basic small business acquisitions such as a truck for a freighting partnership.

The assault came after the government was embarrassed when a report by the firm BIS Shrapnel, which Treasurer Scott Morrison claimed had modelled Labor’s negative gearing policy, was found to have been done before the opposition policy was released.”

And the final outcome folks – it’s all a storm in a teacup – the whole discussion will be forgotten about after the election until some bright spark brings the topic up again for a little more scare-mongering just before the budget in 2017!
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NO Housing Bubble!

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Who’s afraid of a housing bubble?

There is no housing bubble. What a great headline in today’s media. Having just read the article, a more accurate headline would be “No chance of a housing bubble” but it just doesn’t have the same fearful ‘grab’.

Again, quite a positive article only about our two largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne property markets. One day, someone is going to present these commentators with a map of Australia which will clearly show that there are many other housing markets outside of these two cities. Read full article at: http://goo.gl/cmCiyv

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