When will Sydney House prices boom again?
The question already being asked, now that Sydney house prices seem to have peaked is “When will Sydney House prices boom again?”
House prices drop in almost all of Sydney’s suburbs over the last two quarters has seen the median house price dip below $1 million.
investment property growth in six years time?
Many state that after a three-year property boom, Sydney’s house prices have fallen for the last six months indicating that the boom is clearly over. In fact, with the exception of 2012 which was a pretty ‘flat’ year in Sydney, the boom just over actually started in 2010. This makes the growth ‘boom’ period nearer to five years rather than just the last three years. Of course, the only areas that showed any good growth in from 2010 to 2013 were the Eastern Suburbs, Lower North Shore and Inner West. After the lull in price growth during 2012, we then saw the ‘ripple effect’ take hold as price increases rippled out to our outer suburbs. This was all quite predictable although the large percentage gain on median property prices over this period was a surprise to most. It just wasn’t expected to be such a big boom!
Since September 2015, when the median house price reached $1,045,000, the median Sydney price has fallen below the $1 million mark. The big question is “Where to from here?”
If history is any guide, the next boom is only five or six years away…. it nearly always is after the peak of each growth cycle.
We just need to keep a close eye on supply tightening up, Sydney population growth, the general economic conditions, unemployment and job growth, increasing rentals and affordability based on how much our average pay packets increase over the next few years. When we see all of the above begin to increase demand, then we’ll know that we are at the beginning of our next Sydney growth cycle.
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Interestingly, this percentage drop is slightly more than the house price drop of 2008 to 2009 at the height of the global financial crisis. It is the largest drop since the end of the last Sydney house price growth cycle of 1996 to 2003. For those with longer memories of the end of the last growth cycle in Sydney, it’s not a lot to be concerned about and in fact, is pretty much the expected outcome after such a long and large period of price growth.
